Asturias and "just some chickens": The real cause of the Israeli Arab conflict
Apart from a few Arabists such as Daniel Pipes , I find it frustrating that too many commentators and analysts are too politically correct to discuss what lies at the core of Arab irredentism-their mentality that the entire Middle east belongs to them.
Fun fact: Before 1948 , naqba didn't refer to the catastrophe that was the foundation of Israel(the association of that word with expulsion of Palestinians started in the 1960s) but to 1492- The Reconquista of an Arab/Amazigh Muslim land by Spanish Catholics. Arabs prefer not to discuss this and sweep it under the rug . Osama Bin Ladens main gripes were kuffar control of Kashmir, Zionists in Palestine , the loss of Al Andalusia (Muslim Spain) and whiskey swilling bacon munching Americans on Saudi soil because the average Arab military were severely substandard and not capable of repelling Saddam's behemoth. Over time even Osama Bin Laden got the memo and as the Iraq war was dragging on he discovered that it was prudent to drop the Al Andalusia angle to further fracture the American coalition. He had achieved this by the Madrid bombing in 2004 which compelled the new government to beat a hasty retreat from Iraq.
The importance of deterrence is highlighted by a story of a mild mannered and somewhat dim-witted Bedouin.
One day a few thieves broke into his camps and stole some chickens. When his sons wanted to track and punish the culprits , he chided them for their hot-headed nature "it was just chickens, my boys , calm down"
A few days later they got more brazen and stole sheep and when the irate sons were sharpening their swords to deal with the thieves, the Bedouin once again urging restraint "it was just some sheep , calm down"
And then with a camel with predictable action from the sons and counter action by the father
Soon enough one of his daughters got raped . The Bedouin consumed by shame ,rage and vengeance approached his sons who were playing backgammon and drinking coffee. Shocked at their callous indifference he exclaimed "why are you relaxing in the camp and not avenging your daughter ,where is your sense of honor??"
They laughed and said "dont talk about honor old man, you had your chance when the chickens were stolen"
This is Asturias during Ummayad rule, surrounded by overwhelming Muslim military might with the sea on one side. Remind you of anyone today?
It is therefore interesting that the nakba is applied to both 1492 and 1948. To use another Arab analogy, Asturia and Israel were the camels nose under the tent. Its only a matter of time before the entire camel comes in.
There is of course the Islamic notion that once a land has been conquered by Islam, it should remained under Islamic rule for eternity and any reversion to the previous non Muslim owners is a catastrophe. This is really the Arab mindset which founds it way in the Quran. The reality is that most Arabs dont really care that much about Rohingyas, Babri Masjid, Uyghurs and what have you. Its like a blast radius of concern, the further the concentric circle from the Arab world the less they care. They let local Muslims deal with their situation as they see fit. They have more pressing problems at home
Another aspect is saving face- do note that those countries who have signed the Abraham Accords did so because they have not really faced Israel on the battle field and hence were not humiliated by them. Hence they dont lose face if they sign peace treaties with Israel. There is also the inconvenient matter that the GCC Arabs dont really see Levantines such as Palestinians and Lebanese as real Arabs
Wait a minute YSV you may say- didnt Egypt and Jordan whose militaries were thrashed repeatedly by Israel also sign a peace treaty? Sure it unlike the Abraham accords which was built upon decades of Israel working behind the scenes with the GCC countries, the Sinai and Oslo treaties were a top down imposition by the U.S government. While I do believe that Anwar Sadat and King Hussain were urbane enough to realize the futility of fighting Israel, their subjects do not agree - Sadat paid for his actions with his life and Jordan(>60% Palestinian) to this day is a tinderbox of economic and geopolitical discontent.
They are unable to digest that Arab land has been taken by non Arabs, even it is barely a stray scrap on the Eastern Mediterranean.
The only way for Israel to win this is to practice deterrence which Oslo and land for peace treaties only proved to Arabs that Israel was weak. Oslo was no win situation for all parties except the Clintons who built their various grifts including their foundation on that failed policy.
From the Arab POV, Oslo was where Bedouins had stolen chickens from a Jewish chieftain.Hardcore Likudniks tried to warn them but were rebuffed. And sure enough this culminated in rape of Jewish women in recent events, just like that parable. Jewish sons however aren't resigned to playing backgammon however, they want to restore deterrence by killing as many as theirs as possible. Babies too. Brutality is respected in the Middle east. It is a horrible thing but that's what it takes to win wars and establish deterrence. Mercy is seen as weakness- an invitation to steal chickens and rape.
Enough of all these unpleasant talks about war , rape and killing babies. Let us take a break and read some heart warming Pslams
“O daughter of Babylon, doomed to be destroyed, blessed shall he be who repays you with what you have done to us! Blessed shall he be who takes your little ones and dashes them against the rock!” Psalm 137-1
Oh wait...
Ok how about the Prophets(Neviim)
Gather together, yes, gather, O shameless nation, before the decree takes effect —before the day passes away like chaff— before there comes upon you the burning anger of the Lord, before there comes upon you the day of the anger of the Lord. Seek the Lord, all you humble of the land, who do his just commands; seek righteousness; seek humility; perhaps you may be hidden on the day of the anger of the Lord. For Gaza shall be deserted, and Ashkelon shall become a desolation; Ashdod's people shall be driven out at noon, and Ekron shall be uprooted. Woe to you inhabitants of the seacoast, you nation of the Cherethites! The word of the Lord is against you, O Canaan, land of the Philistines; and I will destroy you until no inhabitant is left.
Zephaniah 2:1-15
ok....I am beginning to suspect all this is some Bronze age era beefs predating Judaism never mind Islam , which carried over various generations to the current age. Why superpowers want to get involved in local squabbles is beyond me. They get their fingers (two prominent fingers in 2001) but cant help themselves. Must be a form of Jerusalem syndrome on geopolitical steroids.
@YSV
ReplyDeleteDo you think Hezbollah is finished now that their leader is gone?
They are seriously crippled but not finished. There is no leadership as the others were finished off by the pager blitzkrieg. However they do have reserves of around 5 to 10 thousand , fighting age men. Exact numbers are hard to come by. The estimates of 100k+ in Hezbollah ranks are ridiculous. The real number is half that or lesser and most of these are just Shia men between ages 18 to 60 with Hezbollah party membership who own a gun or two. Those are actually battlefield ready and in shape are closer to the numbers I mentioned.
DeleteHowever the unPC aspect of war is that you need to kill civilians-particularly the young men, usually the rule of thumb is that if you finish a third of fighting age men-both combatants and non combatants- the fighting ends.
Rather than a ground invasion, Israel would be wise to fight via proxies through Maronites ,Sunnis and Druze and let their militias finish off the Hezbollah while occasionally providing air cover and logistical assistance. Israel also now controls the airport and ports of Lebanon and hence the iranian flow of arms and other supplies has come to an abrupt halt.
Because this will be a very dirty war for aforementioned reasons and Israel doesnt need any more negative publicity re civilian casualties. Let others do the dirty work.
Also a ground invasion would distract from their main goal of finish Hamas- they are beaten considerably but not down and out.
This whole business is one bombshell after another (pun intended). First Oct 7, then the pager madness and now Nasrallah is in the bottle.
DeleteBeirut seems to have developed a bad habit of going kaboom once in a while. First the 2020 port explosion which our dear truth exhumer/kalki avatar claims was a nuclear detonation by Israel. I mean WTF.
DeleteWhat is unsustainable cannot be sustained. The status quo that Israel had was built on many falsehoods and you saw that collapse on October 7th.
DeletePals could easily get a country tomm if they agree to have the settlements remain in place and give up their irredentist dreams (conquering entire Israel) but they choose not to and engage in constantly foolish actions believing that weak and cowardly Jews will succumb to - this was their rationale for October 7th. There was a faction in Hamas who actually thought that Israel would surrender! This sense of triumphalism spread to the entire Levant and Iraq where they sensed that victory was around the corner. Now they are learning the hard way that the "Zionist entity" is not weaker than a spiders web- in the poetic words of Hezbollah.
Same war, bloodshed and chaos is neccesary to establish a meaningful peace that will last decades.
Kalki avatar must be in advanced stages of grief that his heroes have been decimated. The 2020 was a nuclear explosion , lol I must have missed that- how he is this ignorant is beyond me.
Pity about Beirut , lovely city but the government is utterly incompetent- they have wrecked their economy (even as Lebanese people are one of the most entrepreneurial and it resides on the eastern Mediterranean) and allowed gangsters in the payroll of a foreign state to run roughshod over the country, what did they expect?