Some things to note in the Fog of War

 I am a supporter of Israel. To the extent that I believe that Palestinians in the West Bank or rather Judea and Samaria should be relocated to Lebanon and Syria . 

Though I dont think the same about Gaza. Israel offered Gaza to Egypt as part of the Sinai accords, but Egypt cleverly refused. A small highly dense strip of land filled with desperately poor people is not exactly a Christmas gift. Unlike Judea and Samaria there is not even a historical basis for Israel to hold onto Gaza. Neither the ancient Israelites nor the Zionists had much interest in Gaza. Of those who wished to hold onto it oddly mentioned its ties to Biblical characters though none fit to reside in it. It was considered the realm of barbarians known as "Philistines" (who are not Arab or even Semitic). The rationale of settlement in Gaza was the folk hero Samson whose connection to Gaza was that he often visited prostitutes there and, in the end, but was caught down and blinded but managed to bring down their massive temple with his bear hands killing the majority of the residents gathered there to watch him tortured and executed. Even mild-mannered Jewish historians such as Henry Abramson, not ostensibly normally consumed with bloodlust, noted dryly in his latest YouTube video that there is a lesson there for Gazans today.

It is considered an "open air" concentration camp by all the usual people speaking gibberish. What sort of concentration camp has one of the highest obesity rates in West Asia? Is it really a good idea for residents of concentration camps to fire missile constantly at those who provide them with water, food, electricity, fuel among other supplies as Israel does (and not Egypt). 

So in that context, the attack by Hamas has nothing to do with their suffering. Im not aware of leaders of concentration camps in the 1940s hightailing it in five star hotels in Berlin ,Dubai and Paris . Which is where the leaders "suffer". The residents of Gaza are really their hostages. It is indeed tragic that they have to pay for their oppressors bloodlust.

Now speaking of the shocking and harrowing stories, as I write this, many of these narratives are collapsing. Certainly the obviously propagandist tone of beheaded babies. This could not be independently corrobarated and the Israeli media too is increasingly skeptical. Neither are the rape stories likely true. The most famous example being the unfortunate young woman Shoni Louk. Her partally naked body on the bed of a Hamas truck has become emblematic of their brutality and barbarism. Except there are videos of her in the festival very scantily dressed which are cover barely more than underwear which these videos show her in - not naked technically. And that underwear is reasonably modest, one can see more in beaches in Dubai. Anything could have happened, she may have tried to escape someones grasp and the flimsy clothing could have torn off in the process or she could have vomitted on  her self causing them to discard the clothing. Anyhow she is alive,not dead in a Gaza hospital and presumably not well. 

It is possible to pro Israel and be nuanced and very sceptical about media hysteria and official narratives. In order to inflame the bloodlust of Israeli soldiers who have been demoralized since Oslo and retreated into defensive warfare leading to debacles of 2006 Lebanon war, these narratives and propaganda have been bombarded into the bloodstream of their subconscious.

As for how the Mossad and entire defence establishment could miss something of this scale, well it is a matter of probabilities. Every morning, every decision maker entrusted with the safety and security of Israel has to be 100% right on the threats posed by their enemies and how to thwart them as well as allocate their resources appropriately. And they had quite an impressive winning streak since the inception of their nation. But as in the comedy series Frasier, the comically promiscuous Roz informs the eponymous character who asks how she got pregnant despite using contraception "even the best protection fails once every 200 times- I can't beat those odds".

Israel post the Abraham Accords started believing it was a "normal" country and not the target of political, ideological, religious and military destruction. It got silly, soft and complacent. Netanyahu's government was plagued by many scandals and rocked by protests which diverted the attention of the military and intelligence. Many members actively disliked Netanyahu. If his brother Yonathan, hadnt died in the magnificient raid on Entebbe airport, then likely he would be a middle manager is some fintech firm tormenting the junior staff on a regular basis.

And Netanyahu is rather an amazing character, when it comes to national security he managed to fail his way to the top. Under his tutelage the Mossad had one embarassing fiasco after the other. He is unimaginative technocrat whose focus was never security but the economy . He was mostly responsible for Israel becoming a technological powerhouse. But over reliance of technology is what led to the fiasco today. They underestimated Hamass sense of guile and innovation particularly when it came to utilizing paragliding as paragliding had become a recreational activity and Israeli authorities therefore never really paid it much attention. At the same time Hamas had become familar with the routines of drones and satellite navigation and managed to pick the right blind spots at the right time.

Hamas is supported by Iran but likely did not fund this operation as most of it was kept secret from even other Hamas senior operatives which is how they maintained radio silence. It was likely the go between Qatar which set it in motion. This third rate kleptocratic state was yearning for relevance and vengeance since the GCC isolated it due to it being cozy with Iran. All this is likely an attempt to sabotage the incoming Saudi peace deal with Israel which would have a further ripple effect with the rest of the Sunni world.

It is interesting that while Europeans and many Americans are getting increasingly and viciously anti semitic , the Arabs seem to be moving in the opposite direction. Will the socio religious poles flip and we return to the dynamics of the early middle ages? Who knows

Just as the narratives about the vile atrocities are likely fake so are the claims of the IDF which says tht they couldnt arrive at the settlements and kibbutzs near the Gaza border for 12 hours. 12 hours? Israel is such a small country that once you get out of your house and start driving you can reach Lebanon, West Bank , Gaza or the Mediterranean sea before you switch to the third gear.

There are also allegations that Netanyahu knew about this and ignored it so that this would serve as very useful distraction from his myriad of political issues which would have landed him in prison. I dont blame the conspiracy minded if they see this as a little too convenient and perfectly timed in this regard.

As much I dislike Palestinians on a personal level (they are racist ,hate filled and obnoxious just for starters), it is terrible to see children die for no fault of their own. Let us hope this can be concluded with minimal bloodshed of innocents on either side as possible. 

It would be dishonest of me to buy whatever the Israeli government is selling right now ,even as I support the Israeli people. The last three years have seen enough government tyranny , mania for control, lies and propaganda across the world with hardly any exception.